How economic problems in Russia due to the war with Ukraine could influence the collapse of Russia as a state

  UKR RUS ENG

The economic problems caused by the war with Ukraine could indeed weaken Russia as a state, but the path to complete “collapse” is a complex and unlikely scenario in the short term. However, under certain conditions, economic difficulties could lead to serious internal upheaval. Below, we’ll examine how this could play out:

 1. Economic isolation and sanctions

What’s happening:

• Western sanctions have limited access to technology, finance, markets, and investment.
• The departure of foreign companies and a decline in investment.
• Restrictions on oil and gas exports, price ceilings, embargoes.

Consequences:

• Technological lag, especially in the military-industrial complex, energy, aviation and IT.
• Loss of sales markets and reduction in export revenue.
• Limited access to foreign currency and problematic macroeconomic stability.

 2. Pressure on the budget and rising costs

What’s happening:

• War expenses (army, mercenaries, equipment, logistics) have increased exponentially.
• Budget revenues are suffering from export restrictions and falling oil/gas prices.

Consequences:

• Growing budget deficit.
• Printing money (emission), which can lead to inflation.
• Reduction of funding for the social sphere, regions, and infrastructure.

3. Regional discontent and inequality

What’s happening:

• Numerous Russian regions are already subsidized.
• The centralization of power and the uneven distribution of resources are exacerbated by the crisis.

Consequences:

• Discontent is growing in regions where living standards are falling.
• A rise in separatist sentiments is possible (for example, in national republics).

 4. Social tension

What’s happening:

• Rising prices, job losses, mobilization, falling incomes.
• Increased repression, suppression of discontent.

Total fertility rate in the Russian Federation, 1990–2024

Consequences:

• Potential mass protests, strikes, discontent within the security forces.
• Escalation of distrust towards the central government.

 5. Potential for disintegration (but not a guarantee)

The history of Russia (and the USSR) shows that when combined:

• economic collapse,
• ineffective management,
• military defeats,
• internal fragmentation,

A weakening of the center and even disintegration along ethnic republic and regional lines are possible. However, this would require profound internal crises.

Bottom line: Threats, but not inevitability, of collapse

Factor	Risk for the state
Sanctions and isolation	Medium → Long-term risk
Budget deficit	High
Social discontent	Average
Regional separatism	Low → when escalating – high
The collapse of the state	Low, but possible under certain conditions

A pessimistic scenario for the development of the situation in Russia, based on the economic problems caused by the war with Ukraine. This is not a prediction, but a logical model based on current and potential trends.

Pessimistic scenario: Erosion of the state

Period: 2025–2030

The main idea: protracted war, deepening isolation, increasing internal pressure → weakening of the center → fragmentation of power.

1. 2025–2026: Financial exhaustion and military pressure

• The budget cannot cope with the load:
  • Military spending is above 30% of the budget.
  • Oil and gas revenues are falling due to cheap raw materials and sanctions.
  • Increased emission leads to accelerated inflation (15–25%).

• Reserves are spent :
  • The National Welfare Fund is almost depleted.
  • Problems with importing critical components (electronics, automotive industry, aviation).
•  Protracted or losing war :
  • Losses at the front.
  • Mass mobilization is causing irritation in the regions.
  • Protests are suppressed, but discontent is growing.

2. 2026–2027: Growing instability

• Growing protest sentiments :
  • Large-scale strikes and industrial action in regions with industrial collapse.
  • Local elites begin to ignore the center (de facto autonomy).
• Default of regions and companies :
  • Local budgets are going bankrupt.
  • Large state corporations in the energy and transport sectors are no longer operating efficiently.
• The collapse of the vertical power structure :
  • The center is losing control over certain regions (especially in the Caucasus, Yakutia, and the Far East).
  • PMCs, criminal structures and local elites begin to “control” territories.

3. 2028–2030: Disintegration Phase

• Actual paralysis of the center :
  • The Kremlin retains nominal power, but the regions act independently.
  • Internal conflicts between power groups, struggle for resources.
• Beginning of decay :
  • Some national republics (for example, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, the Caucasus regions) are seeking de facto sovereignty.
  • The center cannot provide either security or supplies.
• Threats of civil war :
  • Fights between various security forces (security forces, military, PMCs).
  • Possible intervention by China, Turkey, and other countries on the periphery.

Final phase (2030): “Erosion of the state”

Russia remains nominally a unified state , but in essence it is:

• Network of regional regimes;
• Weakened central authority;
• Unstable economy;
• Disparate armed groups;
• External dependence on China/Iran/other authoritarian partners.

Clarification:

This scenario is not inevitable , but is possible if:

• continuation of military operations without strategic success;
• maintaining international isolation;
• increasing internal instability;
• failure of institutional management.

Conclusion: Paradoxically, Ukraine’s victory in this war could save Russia from collapse!