While the world is discussing the possibility of a truce between Moscow and Kiev, and Volodymyr Zelensky is putting forward his own conditions for this, Z-channels are busy with something completely different – they do not see how and by whom to continue this war. The “cannon fodder” is running out, the equipment is burning, there are significantly fewer drones than the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even army transport now has to be camouflaged with plastic basins. And if earlier pro-war bloggers wrote: “Victory will be ours”, now they increasingly ask: “Who is planning to win this – and why?” Ivan Filippov, the author of the Telegram channel ” On the Zzzzzwestern Front Without Change ” that studies Z-publics, analyzes what moods reign in the Z-community in the days when Ukrainian and Russian delegations are trying to sit down at the negotiating table in Istanbul for “Vot Tak”.

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“Combat basins” instead of electronic warfare

For the third year now, I have been carefully reading and analyzing hundreds of Z-channels every day. I am trying to find something important and interesting, something that will tell us all more about this damned war. And during this time, I think I have already read all the possible stories and complaints. It is difficult to surprise me with anything now.

Of course, there are surprises. For example, a relatively recent story told by the channel “Two Majors”. The gist of it is this: since the main problem at the front (and in the frontline zone of 30-50 km) is combat drones, the military was prohibited from moving without electronic warfare (EW) systems installed on their vehicles.

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In addition, the military police, which is known for mercilessly screwing Russian servicemen for any reason, and sometimes just like that, were ordered to stop vehicles without electronic warfare and prohibit further movement. So far, everything sounds completely reasonable. But since we are talking about the Russian army, an important point becomes clear: there simply aren’t enough electronic warfare systems. Well, maybe they will be, but then and it’s unclear exactly when.

“But we have to travel. The army is moving forward, we can’t carry ammunition and food on donkeys. What to do? They ordered the electronic warfare, but it will take them a while to arrive, to ship, to deliver. <…> They took plastic basins and covered them with “secret paint that deflects enemy drones.” At the same time, it looks like electronic warfare, yes, the military police posts are now frowning from afar, but they let us through: there is a yellow on the roof, which means everything is in order.”

The author of the channel “Two Majors” ended this story on an optimistic note, that the military command seemed to understand the problem and lifted the ban. But the story about combat basins on military vehicles, you must admit, is impressive.

Such stories do happen, of course, but quite rarely. Basically, everything I read every day, of course, leaving out the joyful posts about some successful accomplishments, is an endless stream of complaints about the same problems.

Stormtroopers on motorcycles and “naked” tanks

Due to the abundance of drones on many sections of the front, the Russian army has either run out of armored vehicles or is running out of them. As a result, attack aircraft are going into battle on motorcycles, and Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian military channels are publishing videos of attacks in passenger cars. Which, by the way, burn much easier than armored vehicles.

Are new armored vehicles coming to the front? Yes, of course they are. Just the other day I saw footage of a train carrying at least 70 tanks to the Russian army. But, as the same Z-authors regularly write, despite the fact that the war has been going on for four years, the Russian military-industrial complex either does not adapt armored vehicles at all, or adapts them minimally, to the “realities of the Central Military District,” and the army receives “naked” tanks and infantry fighting vehicles — without “barbecues” and electronic warfare systems. Such equipment does not last long.

In fact, the lack of transport and the lack of drones have been the main topics in Z-channels since March 2022. Ukrainian drones are burning civilian vehicles that the army uses to deliver ammunition, food, water, building materials, for rotation and evacuation of the wounded. Since drones are flying deeper and deeper into the Russian rear every day, this creates more and more problems with logistics – the BK has to be dragged to the line of combat contact further and further every day, many kilometers. So, in fact, donkeys appeared in the army – it is more convenient with them than on your own back.

These circumstances do not raise morale. By the way, about morale. It is important for any soldier in the war to understand that if he is wounded, and God forbid seriously, his comrades will not abandon him in trouble and will drag him to a field hospital or a medic. As Z-channels write, the Russian military today does not have such confidence. The channel “Visiting Doc” wrote a series of posts about this in detail. Here is an example:

“We have gradually come to the point where the story that used to be in some areas has become a mass phenomenon. The work of evacuation groups on the front line has practically ceased. It is worth understanding that we are talking specifically about removal from the front line, and not from the “frontline” zone.”

The author ends these texts with a sad conclusion:

“Psychologically, it is necessary to prepare the fighter for the fact that if he is wounded, he will be left alone and all issues related to preserving his life and limbs will become his own problem and he will have to evacuate (several kilometers) on his own. In simple terms, no one will come for him.”

Meat assaults and forced contracts

Meat assaults are another evergreen topic. The word “assault” in the lexicon of military authors has already become a synonym for a suicide bomber. To send to an assault unit is the same as to zero out. That is, to execute. But even if you are sent to an assault not for a misdemeanor or a conflict with the commander, but specifically to solve a combat mission, this also has little effect on the probability of survival.

But, I repeat, this is not a new topic. Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Ugledar. The Russian army continues to be successfully “ground down” into hundreds of tiny villages. Yes, Z-authors write about butcher-commanders, about “war on credit”, about how officers’ ambitions are generously paid for with soldiers’ blood and that during the war there have been no cases of punishment of these same butchers, but there have been cases of awarding. But even this today will not surprise anyone, and I have been reading such texts almost daily for the last three years.

As a result, the advancing army lacks people. Z-channels write and write about this too, although the nature of the texts has changed recently. If earlier the first complaints were that few people sign contracts even for big money, or that alcoholics, drug addicts and people from the “bottom of society” go to fight, now military channels increasingly write about a new scourge: in order to provide the bosses with nice figures, mobilized people are forced to sign contracts. And if they don’t want to? I think you can guess: either a contract, or take a machine gun and go storm the landing.

Putin’s canary driven to pity

Drones, transport, losses – the same thing for the fourth year. Everything flows, nothing changes. The war has stalled. In words, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are literally dividing Ukraine, deciding whether the Russian army will conquer it all or just the piece written into the “constitution” of the Russian Federation. But in reality, the Russian military is storming villages that the average Russian will not find on a map, and he has never even heard of them. And this is happening already in the second year of the declared “Kharkov offensive”.

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The author of the channel “Philologist in Ambush” explains with the help of a question why the offensive of the General Staff of the Russian Federation did not go so well: “How rational is it to conduct offensive actions on a broad front if our limited strike resources are not enough to normally provide for all the areas where our troops are attacking?”

In other words, they ordered to attack on a broad front – the army does attack on a broad front. And the fact that there are not enough resources for such an attack – this is not a question for the General Staff, you yourself can do it somehow.

I think there is a rather curious conclusion to be drawn from all this. But first, a brief excursion into history. In the 19th century in England, miners took canaries with them to the coalface. The poor birds acted as gas analyzers: if a canary died, it meant that there had been a methane release or carbon dioxide had accumulated and the miners had to leave immediately.

In Z-space, the canary function is performed by war correspondent Sladkov. He is not just a Z-author, he is a war correspondent who has been through many wars from Afghanistan and Chechnya to the invasion of Ukraine. Sladkov is invited to a meeting with the Minister of Defense, he sits at the same table with President Vladimir Putin. He is a “court” war correspondent in every sense of the word. Why is he that canary? Because if Sladkov writes about a problem in the army, it means that this problem has grown so much that even he can no longer ignore it.

So, in a few days Sladkov wrote an outstanding text in his signature style, where many sentences are mutually exclusive or contradict not only common sense, but also what the author himself writes. But nevertheless, this text deserves attention:

“ I feel sorry for us. They are beating us. I have already reached the point of pity. There was a period of denial, anger, something else. And now I have accepted the situation as it is. They are beating us like flies with a fly swatter… We must either stop the war, move to a freeze, to truces, or somewhere else, or fight the way the Russians usually fight at the front and in the rear, and at Headquarters. In this combat parity with Ukraine, we can grind down the remaining ones who want to fight.”

In Sladkov’s text, this idea is hidden under phrases like “we are invincible in battle” and we must begin to fight to the fullest. Especially for Comrade Major, Sladkov even wrote in all caps “YOU HAVE READ AN OPINION WITH WHICH I DO NOT AGREE”, but nevertheless, his main idea is still obvious: “We must either stop the war, move to a freeze, to truces, or somewhere else, or fight the way the Russians usually fight at the front and in the rear, and at Headquarters.”

Do generals need victory?

The conclusion that can be drawn from all of the above seems to me to be quite obvious: the Russian General Staff and the Russian Ministry of Defense are not interested in military successes, much less in victory. There is a ton of evidence for this, but I can’t find any counterarguments. There are no other explanations for the current state of affairs.

The Ukrainian command is waging a defensive war. They are defending their home with all their might, and over the three years of war, we all, even those who do not closely follow the war, see that the Ukrainian generals are trying and coming up with ways to win the war. Of course, not everything is working out, but at the same time we see attempts to turn the tide of the war.

Drone strikes on Russian logistics, attempts to land troops or blow up the Crimean Bridge, attempts to distract the Russian army by opening a new front in the Kursk region. These are not local initiatives, but the work of the General Staff. As is the integration of UAV units into the Ukrainian army and the creation of an incredibly efficient drone production industry.

Just a few days ago, the Z community was shocked by the news that a missile launched from a Ukrainian naval drone destroyed a Su-30 fighter jet. Naval drones taking part in mass raids on Crimea are also not a local initiative, but the work of military strategists.

When it comes to the Russian army, 99% of all stories about victories (and they certainly exist) are connected with initiatives on the ground. As in the case of that very pipe in the Kursk region (the operation to enter the Russian Armed Forces into Sudzha via a gas pipe. — Ed. ) — this is from the most recent examples.

On the other hand, why should the General Staff or the Minister of Defense win the war? They are not being punished for the fact that the war has become positional and neither Kyiv, nor Kharkov, nor Odessa have been captured. Moreover, the President of Russia proudly says that the participation of the military from North Korea was needed for the complete liberation of the Kursk region (and fighting is still going on there). And neither he nor his generals have any problem with it.

Win to stop the literal disposal of Russian men? The General Staff doesn’t give a damn about them – it de facto does not acknowledge losses, the last time Shoigu spoke about killed Russian soldiers was in September 2022, which means everything is fine. Do the generals need a victory to report to the president and receive high awards? Also no. They regularly report their successes to him. For the fourth year already. And this is obviously enough for him. In addition, for many, the war has become a business, and a successful one at that – why win it?

This idea has already reached the most… let’s say “passionate”, proven authors. “As a result, the phrase of the new Minister of Defense has become synonymous with lies, and not with the fight against them,” wrote the author of the channel “Romanov Light” about the famous quote of the new Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov “You can make mistakes – you can’t lie.”

And on the one hand, this thought should be encouraging – after all, neither I nor my associates in any way want Russia to win an unjust war. In reality, all this is sad and hopeless. Maybe the Russian generals really do not plan to win the war, but they are also, apparently, not at all interested in peace.

*The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editorial board’s opinion